Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 83015.009116 87609.952746 92201.426935 97130.416254 102268.614945 107463.660627 113109.833991
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 76060.795148 83145.160881 90419.693111 98437.468118 107015.913266 115908.553798 125813.163492
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 70003.826836 78710.075975 87845.900265 98125.935073 109349.578452 121209.739587 134668.056267
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 66571.829353 76615.336480 87344.013905 99622.010744 113247.799406 127869.258466 144708.293479
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 63435.405847 74523.075711 86554.288449 100527.247510 116254.891043 133356.069048 153301.214467
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 60245.028963 72125.439801 85203.123394 100596.124701 118144.666425 137452.991129 160227.291296
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 57318.900709 69839.552557 83806.481382 100450.077458 119647.255916 140998.288905 166439.889679
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 55889.633095 69170.744790 84161.508637 102220.148480 123263.634706 146888.794308 175290.040114
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 54598.225015 68572.165095 84519.937736 103926.779814 126756.797183 152610.591368 183944.380343
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 52909.553336 67412.016247 84141.878923 104701.121226 129109.157889 156980.899794 191023.818096
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 50870.195655 65740.411668 83077.363517 104588.721908 130356.422283 160019.841887 196524.897513
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 49300.341392 64568.971195 82548.509251 105058.724157 132248.066295 163783.593928 202863.152825
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 47532.114977 63117.344854 81658.560390 105086.733248 133625.735442 166979.599288 208604.113063
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 46531.079458 62579.208045 81851.852825 106410.545313 136558.931034 172038.311415 216598.275996
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 44762.591940 61013.692379 80724.386530 106064.054318 137422.962142 174593.054067 221585.255407
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 44045.308459 60747.065121 81180.814232 107653.052501 140643.733317 179991.915896 230021.525399
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 43079.026810 60122.147346 81155.770447 108615.612973 143076.479040 184432.612851 237312.076330
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 41757.278419 58991.352871 80451.292961 108688.744671 144377.781756 187476.813379 242899.478553
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 40403.582148 57773.963159 79595.864910 108533.308061 145363.261505 190114.018409 247982.022432
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 40022.084156 57819.974945 80347.273168 110416.569715 148912.613622 195929.417663 257011.716415
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 39634.700132 57839.411675 81051.006629 112231.965464 152379.439688 201658.300959 265968.090369
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 38848.244774 57296.240905 80999.917154 113055.536997 154575.830812 205805.288636 272974.174804
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 37707.478700 56239.274426 80244.375892 112935.996143 155544.534476 208402.185667 278043.761832